Monday, February 27, 2012

Have We Given Up on Nikumaroro?

Since I mentioned the paper that Tom Roberts, Joe Cerniglia and I are working on, dealing with the Saipan Captivity Hypotheses for Earhart's/Noonan's disappearance, the question's understandably been raised: Are we abandoning the Nikumaroro Hypothesis?

The answer is: Certainly not.  I, at least, have three reasons for doing the paper:

1. We were asked to, by people in the Mariana Islands who think it would be useful to have a compact, critical analysis of the various "theories" that continue to prompt speculation;

2. We're sometimes criticised for not giving fair attention to hypotheses other than our own.  I don't think that criticism itself is especially fair; one can't pursue every hypothesis, and the sensible approach seems to me to be to pursue the most likely.  But it's true that we haven't spent a lot of time with the other propositions, and it's not a bad idea to do so.

3. It's an interesting exercise to try very hard, very deliberately, not simply to debunk an alternative proposition but to give it fair consideration, and that's what Tom, Joe and I intend to attempt.

So no, examining the Saipan Captivity Hypotheses doesn't reflect any falling-away from the Nikumaroro Hypothesis -- just an effort to meet what's perceived to be a need, to be fair, and to get a little brain-exercise.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

We're Government Agents!

Tom Roberts, Joe Cerniglia and I are starting work on a paper for the forthcoming Marianas History Conference (June 14-16 on Saipan) -- a sober-sided analysis of the various Saipan Incarceration Hypotheses. In the course of which I just stumbled over the marvelous website at, which reveals that TIGHAR is an agent of the U.S. government in its ongoing conspiracy to conceal the truth -- ooops, Truth -- about what happened to Earhart, and that yet another book on this conspiracy will soon hit the streets.  Certainly an event worth anticipating, but I wish the government paid a bit better for the services we're providing.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Earhart Search 75 Symposium June 1-3

Commemorating the 75th anniversary of the disappearance of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan over the Pacific in 1937, The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery (TIGHAR) is sponsoring the "Earhart Search 75" Symposium on June 1-3 at the Crystal Gateway Marriott in Arlington, VA. The symposium will include plenary sessions and break-out groups on different aspects of the Earhart/Noonan mystery and approaches to their solution, including:

Why we continue to care about the mystery after 75 years

Status of research pertaining to TIGHAR's "Nikumaroro Hypothesis," including:

Analysis of radio messages received after the disappearance

Tidal conditions on Nikumaroro during the week following the disappearance

Forensic photographic research results

Historical and oral historical research results

Archaeological research results, terrestrial and underwater

Analysis of artifacts, faunal remains, and other recovered data

Plans for deep-water search off Nikumaroro for Earhart's airplane

Plans for further terrestrial archaeological research at the possible site of Earhart's demise

Status of investigation of alternative hypotheses

A final answer to the mystery: approaches, challenges, solutions.

For further information please visit TIGHAR's website at